US-Russia collaboration has long endured in space. The Ukraine war could ruin it.

• The International Space Station has long been a symbol of international cooperation. 
• Astronauts and cosmonauts from the US and Russia work closely together on the ISS. 
• But amid increasing tensions over Ukraine, the cooperation is under pressure. 

Since the end of the Cold War, the International Space Station (ISS) has been a symbol of international cooperation.

Teams from the US, Russia, Europe, China, and Japan have for the past three decades lived and worked together on the Earth-orbiting station, collecting valuable scientific data in joint research projects.

Veteran astronaut Peggy Whitson previously told Business Insider that crews don't dwell on politics, and their unique view of the world separates them from Earth-bound conflicts.

"People are used to leaving the politics and the religion behind because, when you're in space, you become part of a space culture where my life depends on you and your life depends on me," she said.

On Earth, however, tensions between the US and Russia are at their worst point since the Cold War.

The US is supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion, and Russia's President Vladimir Putin has menaced the West with the prospect of nuclear war in response. The areas where the countries can find common ground are dwindling.

An uneasy relationship

Right now, there are four US astronauts, three Chinese astronauts, and three Russian cosmonauts on the ISS.

In recent years, political tensions have been threatening the precarious agreement that underpins the ISS, with some Russian cosmonauts using the station for a propaganda stunt, and the Kremlin threatening to pull out of the ISS completely.

In 2022, Russia announced that it would withdraw from the ISS in 2024 to build its own space station, but it later deferred its exit until 2028.

If Russia acts on its threats, it could spell the end of the ISS, as Russian space technology expertise is vital for keeping it in orbit.

Amid the geopolitical jostling, the US and Russia are joined in an increasingly tense partnership to keep the ISS going despite being at loggerheads on almost every other front.

"They are metaphorically, practically, and legally codependent, even if some members of each side would prefer them not to be," Jill Stuart of Imperial College London told BI

Fears over conflict on Earth threatening the space station have even made it to Hollywood with a space thriller, "ISS," released in January.

The movie follows Russian and American astronauts who are on a space mission when a nuclear war breaks out. Their respective countries order them to take control of the space station.

Politics makes its way to space

The creation of the ISS was announced by former US President Ronald Reagan, who in 1984 asked NASA to create a "permanently manned space station" that other countries would be invited to contribute to.

By 1988, 15 nations had agreed to participate in the project, then known as Space Station Freedom. Representatives from the US, Japan, Canada, and nine members of the European Space Agency (ESA) signed the Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) to consent to its construction.

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, President Bill Clinton invited newly-formed Russia to join the project, which changed its name to the ISS in 1993.

The Soviets had long-standing expertise in aerospace technology, having launched the world's first space station, "Salyut," in 1971.

Ever since officially joining, Russia has worked extremely closely with the US on the ISS. Crew from both countries were part of the first monthlong expedition in 2000.

But the ISS, for so long a place symbolizing the unity between nations, has begun to fall prey to political divisions as the era of post-Cold War optimism gave way to renewed conflict.

In July 2022, Russian cosmonauts on the ISS unveiled a flag of the Luhansk region in Ukraine. The region has recently been occupied by Russia's invading military, and the picture was seen as a show of support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

It was an outrageous provocation at a site where political differences were supposed to matter less than the common pursuit of truth, said critics.

"I am incredibly disappointed to see cosmonauts and Roscosmos using the International Space Station as a platform to promote their illegal and immoral war, where civilians are being killed every day," Terry Virts, a US astronaut and commander of the ISS in 2015, said at the time.

But Virts told BI that Russia's economic difficulties mean that, for the time being, its provocations are unlikely to be a prelude to fully withdrawing from the ISS.

"It is the only viable civilian space activity for them in the near term," he said.

Russia is channeling huge amounts of money into its Ukraine campaign, with military spending accounting for 6% of GDP last year. It leaves little left over for a huge and ambitious project such as building a space station.

"Their economy has been transitioned to a war footing and they will not have the money to begin any new space exploration initiatives in the foreseeable future," said Virts.

US reliance on Russia

Under the ISS agreement, every nation taking part helps fund it. Russia and the US, as the world's space exploration superpowers, take the largest share of responsibility for maintaining the ship.

The ISS's habitable modules, where the astronauts live and work, are jointly owned by the US and Russia and physically connected.

Stuart, of Imperial College, said that the way the station is built enforces cooperation between nations that find little else to agree about.

"Although strong words have been used on both sides since the conflict in Ukraine, in reality, the agencies involved in the station—as well as the hardware of the station itself—are interdependent in a way that has so far ensured a stable, if tense, continuation of operation," said Stuart.

"Over the past decades of operation, other political tensions between the US and Russia have led to questions about the future of the ISS, but it has always weathered the storm," said Stuart.

The future of the ISS, if Russia does act on its threats and withdraws, appears bleak. It would be difficult to get the ISS to even move without Russian help, said Virts. And transporting astronauts to the station would be more difficult, as under the ISS agreement, Russia flies international teams from its Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

Verts said that while the US would likely be able to find other ways of transporting its astronauts to the station if Russia withdraws its use of its "Soyuz" capsules, the section of the station maintained by Russia include its thrusters, or the engines used to move the spacecraft.

"We do have to cooperate for the basic operation of the station," he said.

One possible solution could come in the form of equipment or financial assistance from Elon Musk's SpaceX. The private space company is thought to be worth between $125 and $140 billion.

Musk wrote a social media post in February 2022 that alluded to the company saving ISS from an "uncontrolled deorbit" after the head of Russia's space agency warned it could crash into the US or Europe if ties were cut over the conflict in Ukraine, The Independent reported.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported in August that the European Space Agency was considering using the organization's launchers over Russia's "Soyuz" capsules.

A new space race

While the US and Russia continue their tense collaborations on the ISS, in other parts of space, competition is intensifying.

China is rapidly becoming a major power in space, challenging the US and Russia's dominance of space exploration and technology. China has completed several unmanned Moon landings, has its own space station, and has developed a sophisticated commercial and military satellite program.

Great power competition in space is nothing new. After all, the first space race was fuelled by the geopolitical rivalry between the US and Soviet Russia.

But the era of cooperation and unity symbolized by the ISS could soon come to feel like something from the past, say experts. For Stuart, the future will likely be defined instead by intensifying rivalry.

"Countries have long used space activity to demonstrate their prestige, and this will continue into the foreseeable future—leading to inevitable competition and even conflict," said Stuart.