The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says

• The bond market's famous recession gauge has been flashing for 18 months.
• A downturn could be delayed for months after the yield curve first inverts, Paul Dietrich said.
• He predicted a recession would hit the economy "sometime soon."

A famously accurate recession indicator has been flashing for 18 months without an economic slowdown materializing — but the inverted yield curve is still correct, and a downturn is looming, B. Riley Wealth's chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich says. 

Dietrich pointed to the inverted Treasury yield curve, a highly accurate recession gauge that flashes when the yield on the 2-year US Treasury surpasses the 10-year Treasury.