Biden's $1 billion weapons package to Israel is coming back to haunt him

• Israel's recent attack on Rafah won't prompt Biden to restrict military support, a US official said.
• The White House said it didn't violate Biden's warnings against targeting population centers.
• Biden's decision could weaken his image and harm his electoral chances.

Ahead of Israel's assault on Rafah, President Joe Biden issued several stark warnings to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Speaking with CNN earlier this month, Biden said he had made it clear that if Israel invaded the city in southern Gaza, he would not be "supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, to deal with that problem."

In a separate interview with MSNBC, he said that an invasion of Rafah would be a "red line" in his relationship with Netanyahu.

For many, Israel seemed to cross that red line on May 6 when it began what it called "targeted" ground operations in the east of Rafah.

Since then, the Gaza Health Ministry has said at least 45 Palestinians have been killed and that hundreds of others have been injured in airstrikes, which ignited a devastating fire in Tel al-Sultan in southern Gaza on Sunday.

Rafah had been sheltering more than 1 million Palestinians who had fled Israeli assaults elsewhere in Gaza.

'No change to our policy'

The Israel Defense Forces said the airstrikes killed two Hamas militants and that it was investigating the civilian casualties, The Associated Press reported.

On Tuesday, the White House said that the attack hadn't violated Biden's warnings against launching a large-scale assault targeting population centers. US officials noted Netanyahu's comments on Monday that the civilian casualties were a "tragic mistake."

Matt Miller, the spokesperson for the State Department, said the US was "deeply saddened by the tragic loss of life in Rafah" but that it "made no change to our policy."

"We have made clear that if there was a full-scale military operation, there would be some change," he added. "But as of yet, it's not a change. I mean, we do support — as we always have — their ability to go after legitimate Hamas terrorists."

A $1 billion arms deal

The statement suggested Biden would move forward with a $1 billion weapons package to Israel. Congress still needs to be officially notified of the sale and approve it.

The Wall Street Journal reported the package could include $700 million in tank ammunition, $500 million in military vehicles, and $60 million in mortar rounds.

Speaking with The Washington Post, Sen. Chris Van Hollen said Biden should cease military assistance to Israel "until we know that all the president's requests, including with respect to Rafah and the urgent delivery of humanitarian assistance, will be respected."

"A partnership should be a two-way street, not a one-way blank check," he added.

As Business Insider has previously said, the weapons deal could be seen as an attempt to heal Biden's relationship with Netanyahu and halt accusations that the US is emboldening Iran.

But the Biden administration has carried out only minor sanctions on Netanyahu's government as the death toll in Gaza mounts. For instance, Biden previously withheld a shipment of bombs before announcing that the planned weapons deal would go ahead.

Biden appears weak

Andrew Payne, an expert on US foreign policy and a lecturer at City, University of London, told BI that Biden's handling of the Gaza war could harm his chances in the upcoming election.

"No one's going in and saying, 'I didn't like the arms deal back in May, so I guess I'll go for Trump,' right?" Payne said. "Instead, the way that the politics of foreign policy works is you tend to vote for candidates who project images that you like. And in the American context, people want their commanders in chief to be tough, to be competent, to be strong."

Payne's comments echoed analysts who said Biden's handling of the war was one of the issues that had corroded his support among younger voters.

"I think Biden's problem is that for several months now, his policies have not managed to shift the dial of Israeli behavior, and that makes him appear relatively weak," Payne added.

Dave Harden, a former mission director at the US Agency for International Development in the West Bank and Gaza, told the BBC in March that Netanyahu "almost treats Biden as some kind of inconsequential second secretary of a low-ranked European power."

"The gap between Israel and the US," he said, "just deepens."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.