Reuters / Ruben Sprich
- Ray Dalio sees up to a 40% chance that political division in the US escalates into civil war.
- The hedge fund billionaire has repeatedly warned about US debt and internal and external conflicts.
- Dalio half-jokingly endorsed Taylor Swift for president, citing her ability to unite people.
Ray Dalio warned the probability of a US civil war is as high as 40% — and said he might back Taylor Swift if she ran for president.
"We are now on the brink," he told the Financial Times in a recent interview, raising the prospect of "much more turbulent times."
Dalio is the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, and the author of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail."
He pegged the chances of a civil war at 35% to 40%, adding that it may not necessarily be a shooting war.
Dalio, the official mentor to Bridgewater's three co-chief investors, has been sounding the alarm on political polarization and economic upheaval in the US for years.
The financial historian has repeatedly underscored that extreme levels of government debt, massive wealth inequality, rising internal divisions, and raging external conflicts can pave the way for war, revolution, and a new world order.
In late 2020, he cautioned the US was "seeing a form of civil war" as masses of people moved states for reasons ranging from politics to taxes.
He bemoaned that America was in a "terrible financial state and terribly divided" in early 2021.
After the Israel-Hamas conflict ignited in October, he declared the risk of a world war involving the US and China had surged from 35% to about 50%.
No more bad blood
Dalio told the FT that after attending a Swift concert, he believed the pop star might be the solution to American division.
"I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together," he said. "I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I'd consider supporting her."
Dalio revealed himself to be a Swiftie when he posted a selfie from one of the singer's "Eras Tour" concerts in March.
He clarified in a follow-up post that he was joking about endorsing her. But he was serious that "she can bring people together a lot better than either of the presidential candidates."
Even if Dalio was just having fun with his talk of a T-Swift presidency, he clearly recognizes the need for a unifying leader at a time when the world is on edge and people seem further apart than ever.