Jonathan Nackstrand /AFP via Getty Images
- Despite US aid, Ukraine struggles to maintain sufficient manpower on the front lines.
- Ukraine's dwindling soldier numbers are a problem that could get worse, a war analyst warned.
- Ukraine is also facing other challenges, like the diminished effectiveness of precision weapons.
Ukraine is having trouble maintaining a sufficient force size in its fight against Russia, which could lead to more problems down the road, war analyst Michael Kofman said.
The embattled northeastern Ukrainian city of "Kharkiv is pretty well-entrenched and defended I think at this point, but nonetheless, there's a danger there because it will take some a months for Ukraine to address its manning situation," Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said during the War on The Rocks podcast that aired Monday.
As Russia makes slow gains in eastern Ukraine, Kharkiv, one of Ukraine's largest cities, stands in its path. The question is whether Ukraine will be able to stabilize its lines before Russia potentially pushes toward the city this summer.
Kofman predicts that Ukraine's "manning situation is the kind of thing that's probably going to get worse before it gets better."
Although Ukraine will receive $61 billion in aid from the US over the coming months, the country has continuously struggled to increase and maintain its manpower on the front lines — a critical capability the aid package doesn't fix.
"Ammunition may come in two weeks, but manpower won't," Kofman said. Ukraine has long struggled with manpower issues, but the situation has worsened.
Earlier this year, a Ukrainian service member told The Washington Post that the companies in his battalion were staffed at 35% of normal levels.
Ukrainian military officials have sought as many as 500,000 more soldiers to fight. More recently, new mobilization laws are going into effect, and Ukrainian lawmakers took steps last month to advance a bill that would allow certain individuals in prison to serve in the country's military.
In addition to the ongoing manpower woes, Kofman said that Ukraine is also struggling with the declining effectiveness of some of its precision capabilities.
Kofman said Russia has been able to adapt to how Ukraine uses these capabilities through "electronic warfare and reorganization of Russian command and control and logistics."
Manpower shortages are still a key problem for the Ukrainians, though. "In general, Ukrainian force is still performing rather well on the defense," he said. "The challenge is that they are significantly outnumbered."