Susan Walsh/AP; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
- Biden's support among swing-state Black voters has cooled considerably compared to 2020.
- Still, he's kept majorities of Black support in must-win Michigan and Pennsylvania, per new polling.
- Trump is hoping to win over more Black voters, but he's not benefiting from Biden's weaker numbers.
Former President Donald Trump is trying to cut into President Joe Biden's support among Black voters this fall, but new swing-state polling shows the former president still has a long way to go.
That's not to say that Biden is currently dominating among this critical group.
Ahead of November, Biden is struggling to recreate the electoral coalition — anchored by overwhelming support among Black voters — that sent him to the White House in 2020.
The latest USAToday/Suffolk University poll of Black voters in Michigan showed Biden leading Trump 54.4% to 15.2%, with 8% of respondents opting for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 6.2% of respondents backing independent Cornel West, and 1% of respondents supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein. That same poll showed that 13.8% of Black respondents were undecided.
A similar story unfolded in Pennsylvania, where Black voters in that state opted for Biden over Trump 56.2% to 10.8%, with 7.6% of respondents choosing West, 7.4% of respondents supporting Kennedy Jr., and 1% of respondents opting for Stein. And 13.8% of Black respondents were undecided, a mirror image of the Michigan survey.
In 2020, Black voters in both Michigan and Pennsylvania backed Biden over Trump by a whopping 92% to 7% margin, according to exit polling.
While Biden continues to win over a majority of Black voters in both states, his support among this group has softened considerably. And while Trump remains optimistic that he can win more Black support, he's only marginally improved on his 2020 performance.
The swing-state polling shows that one of the biggest threats to Biden being able to replicate his previously-robust showing with Black voters is the emergence of third-party candidates, as well as the share of undecided voters — which includes voters who could potentially sit out the election if they're not persuaded to come out to the polls.
For many Black voters critical of Biden over the conflict in Gaza or skeptical of the president's handling of the economy, third-party candidates — as well as Trump — are potential options.
And it's one of the reasons why the Biden campaign is ramping up its advertising and outreach in an effort to appeal to Black voters, aware that the intensity of their support in key swing states could be X-factor in the race.