OpenAI's releasing a new AI model soon, and there's a lot at stake

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Hello! Ah, to be young and optimistic. Gen Z's latest takedown target is corporate jargon. Let's put a pin in that and circle back in a couple of years.

In today's big story, what to expect from OpenAI's newest AI model that's in the works.

What's on deck:

• Markets: A research firm says this chart shows why the current bull market is far from over.
• Tech: One canceled Microsoft AI deal should worry the whole industry.
• Business: Internal documents show Amazon's projections for its healthcare business.

But first, let me upgrade you.

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The big story

Great expectations

OpenAI shook up the world with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. But can its latest upgrade do the same?

GPT-5, the newest model upgrade for OpenAI's chatbot, is coming soon. Business Insider's Darius Rafieyan spoke to OpenAI customers and developers about their expectations for the latest iteration.

Plenty of people have high hopes, and for good reason. The jump between GPT-3, which powered ChatGPT when it launched, and GPT-4, which came out last year, was substantial. One user compared it to going from grade school to undergrad.

But others don't see the newest model making as big a step as its predecessor. One potential customer told Darius the gap between GPT-4 and GPT-5 will be more like going from undergrad to a PhD program.

But they can still dream! High on the wishlist is "agentic actions," or when a model performs multiple complex steps in a row. Instead of just giving you a trip itinerary, ChatGPT could actually book the trip. Being able to seamlessly work across audio, video, and text is also high on the list.

Users aren't the only ones with big hopes for GPT-5.

OpenAI has a lot riding on its newest model, including its ability to get customers to cough up more cash. The startup hasn't been shy about spending big, with operating costs that could reportedly surpass $8 billion this year.

With investors pressing tech companies on their AI projects' paths to profitability, OpenAI could quickly face pressure if GPT-5 can't attract more customers.

But it's not just about making money. (I'll wait for you to stop laughing.)

OpenAI took considerable heat during its last big unveiling. The launch of GPT-4o in May was initially praised, but it wasn't long before a literal superhero came after the startup.

Criticism continued to mount against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman about its lack of focus on safety.

A new model is bound to get plenty of scrutiny — remember the Google Gemini controversy earlier this year? — which could open the startup to additional risk.

That's not ideal for a company that's preparing to take on one of the biggest juggernauts in tech: Google's Search. OpenAI announced plans for SearchGPT that's a direct shot at Google's business.

SearchGPT relies on GPT-4 at the moment, but it's safe to assume that GPT-5 will take on that underlying role in the future. A big stumble by the latter would almost certainly hurt the former's chances of competing with one of the most widely used tools on the web.

3 things in markets

1. The bull market isn't going anywhere. Ned Davis Research highlighted historical trends indicating the current cyclical bull rally will last well into 2025. Slight market corrections like the Nasdaq's dip last week are expected, but the risk of a new bear market is low, according to the research firm. This chart maps out the length of previous rallies.
2. David Solomon is feeling more bullish about interest rate cuts. The Goldman Sachs CEO, who previously said the Fed would skip rate cuts this year, now believes we could get as many as two. He credits the shift in consumer behavior in the face of inflation as a reason for his U-turn.
3. Inside Blackstone's summer internship. It's 10 times harder to score a first-year analyst job at Blackstone than it is to get into Harvard. But the easiest way for undergrads to get a foot in the door is through the private equity giant's 10-week summer internship program. Two executives walked BI through recruitment, the internship, and how to land a return offer.

3 things in tech

1. Inside the tech industry's most powerful bromance. Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang have a lot in common, and have become increasingly close. But it's not all cozy cookouts and leather-jacket swaps: Behind their shared experiences and mutual flattery are billions of dollars in deals, and an increasingly tied future.
2. The collapse of a Microsoft AI deal is cause for industry-wide concern. A pharmaceutical company stopped using Microsoft's Copilot AI because of high cost and low value, comparing its AI-generated slides to "middle school presentations." The canceled deal is a warning sign for companies hoping their AI products will catch on with consumers — and for already freaked-out investors.
3. The networking queen of New York City's tech and venture scene. Alexa von Tobel is the superconnector of New York's tech entrepreneurs and investors. Those who work with her say she has a natural extroversion that makes her extremely good at bringing high-powered people together.

3 things in business

1. A leaked document gives a rare look inside the projected finances of Amazon's big healthcare bet. In December, the company forecast more than $1 billion in losses in 2024 for its healthcare business. But that's an improvement from last year, when it lost $1.28 billion. The tech giant also expected revenue to jump 30% to over $3 billion this year.
2. Your trip to Starbucks just got shorter. Long lines, plunging sales, and frustrated workers are all contributing to the chain's downwards spiral. Earlier this month, though, it changed the way it runs its cafes — and it could turn things around for the company and customers alike.
3. What to expect when Apple and Meta report earnings. Mark Zuckerberg's company reports Q2 earnings today, and investors will likely focus on AI-investment returns. Meanwhile, Apple reports its third-quarter earnings tomorrow, and analysts are expected to ask questions on the recently delayed Apple Intelligence and the iPhone's lagging performance in China.

In other news

• Worried about starting a new drug? See how women say it works.
• The author of the viral joke post about JD Vance having sex with a couch breaks his silence.
• Harris' running mate list is narrowing after 2 top contenders ruled themselves out.
• Meta's $19 billion bid to own messaging in the US gains steam — and AI could give it an edge over Apple's iMessage.
• One of Prada's red-hot brands for Gen Z luxury shoppers just posted crazy growth numbers.
• Stop the crackdown on coffee-badging — here's the real problem.
• Google's AI Olympics ad is drawing jeers online but scores surprisingly well among viewers.
• Tesla keeps touting self-driving but one analyst's near-crash shows it's 'not even close' to autonomy.
• 'White Dudes for Harris' fundraiser thinks Elon Musk might have suspended his account. He's going to keep using Twitter.
• The tech industry wants to create an AI utopia. Its leaders think Universal Basic Income is the answer.

What's happening today

• The Fed announces its July interest rate decision. It's expected to hold rates steady today, though analysts believe a rate cut is likely in September.
• Meta, Boeing, Kraft, and other companies are reporting.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.