Russian Defence Ministry Press Service via AP
- Russia squandered a major opportunity to make battlefield gains, says strategist Mick Ryan.
- Despite recent momentum, Russia's made little forward progress, and its gains have come at a high cost.
- Ukraine's improving military posture and strategic prospects challenge Russia's attrition tactics.
Russia missed out on an opportunity to steamroll Ukraine and secure notable battlefield gains, former Australian major general Mick Ryan said on Tuesday.
"Russia has built strategic momentum with its assaults on Ukraine in the past six months. However, they have largely failed to exploit their opportunities," Ryan, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on X. "Russia appears to have blown what might have been its last chance to strike a decisive blow against Ukraine in this war," he said.
The former general said Russia missed an opportunity to make gains that emerged in late 2023 when Ukraine wrapped up its unsuccessful counteroffensive, running short on munitions and manpower.
Ryan argued that "the Russians over the last six months have generally failed to capitalise on this convergence of opportunities."
This situation, he said, "was probably Russia's best opportunity to make significant gains on the battlefield which it could then turn into significantly increased political and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine for peace negotiations."
He pointed to Russia's limited progress, noting that the Russians have paid in hundreds of lives for each kilometer of territory captured. That's a "poor return on investment - in any war," Ryan said. And casualties have been on the rise.
Russia has been largely using its troops in small, costly actions, a war of attrition strategy President Vladimir Putin openly discussed last month. Ryan said this tactic is counterproductive and prevents the Russians from actually building a bigger, better quality force, a "large force that might be able to undertake larger scale offensive operations."
After visiting Ukraine earlier this year, Ryan predicted that Russia's efforts to influence Ukraine's supporters could be an issue, as it had already led some Americans to minimize Ukraine's critical situation and turn away from supporting US aid efforts.
In his latest argument, he said that Russia's campaign has notably been unconvincing to Ukraine's most prominent backers.
While Russia may have time to ramp up its offensive attacks, Ukraine is trying to improve its own military posture at a steady pace.
"The question now is whether Ukraine, which seeks to liberate more of its territory occupied by Russia, can build all the different physical, moral and intellectual elements of offensive combat power to do better than Russia has either later this year or in 2025," Ryan concluded.