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- Ukraine has faced the distressing prospect of gradually losing ground to larger Russian forces.
- But it regained the initiative with its attack into the Russian region of Kursk.
- Ukraine can build on this by presenting "the Russians with dilemmas they must solve," an expert said.
At the start of August, Ukraine seemed doomed to remain on the defensive, slowly but relentlessly being ground into retreat by Russian onslaughts.
But its successful new Kursk offensive has done more than seize 480 square miles of Russian territory and humiliate Putin. After nearly a year of a grim defensive battle, the Kursk operation has also allowed Ukraine to seize the initiative and force Moscow to dance to Kyiv's tune.
Ukraine had a choice between reinforcing its defenses in the east to stave off continuous Russian attacks in the Donetsk region or to launch its own offensive in the northeast towards Kursk, George Barros, a Russian military expert for the US-based Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider.
"I'm sure historians are going to argue for decades about whether that combat power would have been better spent defending the east versus what it did in the Kursk campaign," Barros said. "I think there's a legitimate discussion to be had here, but generally the best principles of war are that it's better to not sit on your back indefinitely and just take a pounding forever. The Ukrainians now have contested the initiative. The Russians no longer hold the initiative across the entirety of the theater, like they have for most of last year."
In April, Barros told BI that Ukraine needed to find a way to regain the initiative to keep Russia off-balance and deprive Moscow of the luxury of massing overwhelming force at a time and place of its own choosing. Rather than risking everything on a single big offensive — as Ukraine did in 2023, which ultimately failed — the better option would be a series of smaller offensives against weak points in the Russian line. Over time, limited attacks might cumulatively degrade Russian morale and resources.
While it is too early to judge the overall success of the Kursk operation, it is unlikely to have inflicted crippling losses on Russia or compelled the Kremlin to halt its Donetsk offensive. What it has done is embarrass Russian leader Vladimir Putin by piercing the aura of security Russians feel, and perhaps more important, forced Russia's rigid commanders into the kind of improvisational warfare they struggle with. It may also be a bargaining chip in future negotiations if Ukraine's fighters can hold it.
Current indications are that Ukraine may be digging in to consolidate its foothold, rather than expanding it. But this still leaves Kyiv with the dilemma of managing its limited resources to maintain a salient in the Russian lines, while still defending vital areas such as Kharkiv and the south. Which means Ukraine has to find some economical way of keeping up the pressure on Russia, without losing more territory of its own.
"The Ukrainians have the initiative in the northern part of the theater; the Russians maintain the initiative in the east and the south," Barros said. "To maintain the initiative the Ukrainians must continue attacking the frontline either in Kursk or in separate areas of the front in a manner that presents the Russians with dilemmas they must solve. The Ukrainians will need time, manpower, more artillery ammunition, and ideally looser rules of engagement so they may use ATACMS [battlefield rockets] in Russia, in part to achieve the effects of battlefield air interdiction as Russian reinforcements pull up to Kursk."
At the least, the Kursk attack has complicated Moscow's strategic calculus. Until now, Russia has not felt compelled to strongly defend much of the 600-mile-long front line, which allows Russia to mass forces in sectors like Donetsk. If the Kursk operation were to ultimately accomplish no more than forcing Russia to defend its borders with token screening forces as at Kursk, then this would still be an achievement.
"It's unclear what the next Ukrainian move may be," Barros said. "We're seeing lots of strange and so far mostly unsubstantiated reports of Ukrainian attacks across the theater, from Polohy on the Zaporizhia line, to near Zabrama near Bryansk, and elsewhere in Belgorod. The Ukrainians are keeping the Russian command on its toes right now."
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.