REUTERS/Alex Lee
- The US reneged on Trump's promise to sell F-35 stealth fighters to Egypt.
- The Egypts are reportedly in talks with China to acquire some of its advanced aircraft.
- The talks may be a way to "pressure the US" into offering Egypt something, an analyst told BI.
Egypt's military still desperately wants a world-class fighter jet.
With the deal it sought to acquire 20 F-35 stealth fighters from the US on ice, Egyptian officials reportedly discussed buying fourth- and even fifth-generation fighter jets from China. It could be a sign that Cairo, a top recipient of American military aid, is either seriously pursuing advanced aircraft from a US rival or trying to ratchet up pressure on the US to cave and sell it F-35 Lightning IIs.
The Egyptian wish list reportedly includes the fourth-generation J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighter, in service in the air forces of China and Pakistan, and fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon, which is still a prototype.
One report in August even claimed Egyptian officials sought China's premier fifth-generation fighter, the J-20 Mighty Dragon, which is in all likelihood a nonstarter given Beijing's reluctance to export it to anyone.
"China would no doubt want to sell Egypt advanced fighters because the Egyptians tend to purchase a lot of military hardware, and thus could become a reliable and valued customer for China," Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider.
"However, Egypt would likely be cautious about upsetting the United States by purchasing Chinese-made, advanced warplanes, and would also have to navigate Israeli concerns about what that type of purchase would signal about Egypt's future intentions toward Israel."
Two American laws are making it difficult for Egypt to buy its stealth fighters.
First, the United States' commitment to uphold Israel's so-called Qualitative Military Edge by not selling advanced weapons to others in the region was written into law in 2008. Second, the 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) federal law mandates sanctions against countries that import military hardware from US adversaries.
"Egypt is constrained by the US policy of providing Israel with a QME over its Arab neighbors, even if those states have a peace treaty with Israel, such as Egypt does," Heras said. "The F-35 is especially problematic from an Israeli perspective because those planes can be used to counter Israel's air superiority in the event that Egypt and Israel become enemies again."
During his presidency, Donald Trump verbally committed to selling Egypt 20 F-35As in 2018 but opposition from the Department of Defense and Israel killed any potential deal. Frustrated, Egypt turned to Russia for 24 non-stealthy, fourth-generation Su-35s but canceled that order under threat of sanctions.
"Why doesn't the US supply Egypt with F-35 fighters that it supplied Israel with, since it is objecting to the Russian Su-35 fighters deal?" Maj. Gen. Naser Salem, former head of the Egyptian army's reconnaissance department, remarked to Al-Monitor in 2020, aptly epitomizing Cairo's frustration.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, wouldn't be surprised if these recent reports of Egypt-China talks over potential fighter acquisitions are accurate, but thinks they're unlikely to make progress.
"I tend to think that if such talks do take place, they're designed to pressure the US to offer some kind of other defense option for Egypt," Bohl said.
That could include upgraded F-16s. The United States also suggested in 2022 that it was open to selling Egypt F-15s for the first time. Neither of these decades-old fighters would undermine Israel's military prowess; the Israel Defense Force flies advanced versions of them, as well as the F-35 — one of a leading class of so-called fifth-generation fighter aircraft with a stealth design and advanced avionics that give it increased survivability in contested airspace too dangerous for older aircraft.
Since signing its peace with Israel in 1979, Egypt has been a major customer of US military hardware and aid. Washington provides Cairo with $1.3 billion in military aid each year, and the Egyptian armed forces operate large quantities of American military hardware, from F-16s to M1 Abrams main battle tanks. In light of this, it's questionable whether China would feel comfortable selling Egypt one of its most advanced fighters.
"China would not want to sell advanced hardware to a major non-NATO ally like Egypt where the US might be able to glean information (or outright steal it)," Bohl said. "I expect that Beijing would want these security concerns addressed first, which would take time and building trust."
Egypt has bought Chinese warplanes before, such as the Shenyang J-6. But that's a vintage fighter of a bygone age compared to the modern, cutting-edge FC-31. At best, Beijing may expect Cairo to invest in less advanced aircraft like the J-10C before seriously considering any sale of fifth-generation jets.
It's unclear if Cairo can convince Washington to reverse its ban on selling F-35s anytime soon for several reasons.
"Right now, Egypt getting F-35s is not a priority for the US, given both the QME for Israel, Egypt's lack of immediate pressing defense needs for F-35s, and Washington's concerns about delivering such systems abroad when it has major geopolitical challenges in Europe and Asia that weaken the interest in exporting them," Bohl said.
It's not inconceivable that Egypt could make the case that 20 F-35As would not undercut Israel. After all, Israel has already bought 50 and recently signed a deal for another 25. Furthermore, Israel has a unique and specialized variant, the F-35I Adir, most likely more advanced than any basic F-35A model the Egyptian Air Force would receive.
"On that front, it's possible, and particularly with Egypt's support for Israel in the Gaza War, the Israelis might be more open to it," Bohl said. "I think the constraints are stronger in the US at the moment than in Israel over the F-35s overall."
Egypt may also have a third option for acquiring stealth fighters that sidesteps China and the US. They could tap countries like South Korea, Turkey, and India that are developing stealthy jets.
"This is the most viable option, but all of these systems are years away from deployment, let alone export," Bohl said. "Turkey's TF Kaan might fit the bill given that it's the most progressed and Ankara wants it as an export option."
"If Egypt is to move into fifth-generation fighter jet territory, I would venture these second-tier options are the most likely way."