Ukraine's invasion of Russia would be going even better if the West ended its weapons restrictions, war experts say

• Ukraine's Kursk attack would be going even better if its allies gave it a freer hand, experts said.
• The US and other allies don't let Ukraine hit inside Russia with their long-range weapons.
• Ukraine said the incursion wouldn't have been necessary in the first place without those limits.

Ukraine's high-stakes incursion into Russia's Kursk region this month would be going even better if its Western allies dropped restrictions on how the country can use the advanced weapons they've supplied, military experts told Business Insider.

Ukrainian forces pushed into southwest Russia on August 6 in a surprise attack and, as of this week, control almost 500 square miles of Russian territory, Ukraine's army chief said.

Experts say it's unclear how the incursion will end, but they add that it's been highly successful, both in allowing Ukraine to take the initiative and in embarrassing Russia.

They also say that Ukraine would be even more successful if the restrictions that many of its major allies, including the US, imposed on it were dropped.

This would allow Ukraine to hit targets in Russia with the long-range missiles they have supplied.

Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, said being able to use those weapons would help Ukraine "in terms of disrupting logistics, in terms of hitting airfields, ammunition, supplies, petroleum oil and lubricants."

He added that Ukraine had been hitting some of these targets with drones but that doing so at a larger scale with Western weaponry would make things even more difficult for Russia.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that Russia had been moving forces into the region and that Ukraine using missiles to hit roads and crossroads could disrupt those efforts.

Restricting Ukraine

While countries like the US have removed some restrictions around Ukraine using their weaponry on targets in Russia, those still in place mean it's unable to use some of its most powerful weapons, including Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles, to target the sources of Russian attacks.

"If we allowed the Ukrainians to reap the suite of benefits that come from using those missiles, that would indeed help the Kursk campaign," said George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

Barros added that Ukraine had to use significant resources to protect its power, infrastructure, and weaponry from attacks, while "the Russians categorically don't have to really deal with any of that."

Ukraine has repeatedly asked its allies to remove the restrictions, saying they make its defense much more difficult.

In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on August 19 that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk would not have been necessary if its allies had already dropped their restrictions.

He said the incursion was intended to create a buffer zone to prevent more Russian attacks into nearby parts of Ukraine.

Zelenskyy also said Ukraine's success in Kursk showed the falsity of Western fears that Russia would escalate the conflict if its supposed red lines were crossed.

Meanwhile, warfare analysts previously told BI that in launching the incursion into Kursk, Ukraine likely wanted to stretch Russia's forces and give fresh motivation to its troops and allies.

Barros said it's not clear how the fast-moving operation would end, or what Russia or Ukraine would decide to do next.

But he said it was a boost for Ukraine to have taken the initiative after months of being stuck in a largely defensive position.

"It is now no longer the Ukrainians lying on their back for nine-plus months at a time simply trying their best to triage," he said.

Menon described it as a "moment of embarrassment" for Russia because its response both in evacuating people and in dealing with the incursion "has been disastrous."

"I mean, there's just no other way of putting it," he added.