Why China would want to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile out into the Pacific

• China test-fired an ICBM this week, launching it into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in over 40 years.
• This kind of testing gives China useful data on how an ICBM would perform under normal circumstances.
• China's rocket force has seen significant growth in recent years as China bolsters its capabilities.

China's test of an intercontinental ballistic missile this week, which saw the country lob the long-range weapon far out into the Pacific Ocean, was a very public display of Chinese military power at a time when it is bolstering its nuclear arsenal.

The test — the first of its kind by China in over 40 years — also gave China the chance to gather invaluable data about what the ICBM's launch, trajectory, and range could look like in a potential real-world scenario, something a lofted test out in the desert can't offer.

On Wednesday, the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force, the missile branch of the Chinese military, fired an ICBM with a dummy warhead into the Pacific. Though it was anything but, China's Ministry of Defense said the test launch was "routine." It noted it was part of the country's training plan and said other countries were notified in advance.

Maps shared online indicated the weapon, which was launched from Hainan, landed in the South Pacific after covering a distance of roughly 12,000 km. China's defense ministry said that the ICBM came down where expected.

China has not said which missile was tested, but the military has shared pictures online. China watchers and experts initially suggested it could've been a DF-41, one of PLARF's newer ICBMs. The three-stage, solid-fueled rocket has been tested out in the Gobi Desert and was publicly unveiled back in 2019. Other analysts have since said that the weapon was a DF-31 variant.

China has conducted several ICBM tests in interior desert locations as its missile arsenal has grown, but Wednesday's test was different, providing China with something the other tests couldn't.

Tianran Xu, an analyst for Open Nuclear Network, told Business Insider, that "if you launch towards the Pacific, that's the most realistic scenario because you can see how the rocket performs in completely realistic conditions."

He said that this kind of testing likely isn't indispensable, but "it does have the advantage of being completely realistic."

China has long tested missiles out in the desert, but as Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, noted in a series of social media posts, "the problem is that this forces you to use a lofted trajectory" because the "distance from the ICBM test site to the target ranges is around 2000-3000 kilometers."

"That means, if the PLARF wanted to test a depressed trajectory, they're going to need to find another place to test their ICBMs," he said, referring to a lower, longer flight path.

Chinese military analysts arrived at similar conclusions. Song Zhongping, a retired PLARF officer and commentator, told the state-run China Daily that "though China's intercontinental ballistic missiles have good reliability and strong power, we need a certain number of full-range tests to check their operational readiness."

The US notably conducts ICBM readiness tests regularly by launching Minuteman III ICBMs into the Pacific. These tests are fairly routine, unlike the Chinese test, which was the first such test since a DF-5 test in 1980.

Tianran said that China's interior missile tests likely have given China sufficient confidence in the capabilities of its weapons, but the test in the Pacific was a rare opportunity to mimic what a real launch would look like, including logistics, transportation, the skills of missile crews, and launching from atypical sites.

"Launching a missile is complicated and there are a variety of tasks that if you mess it up, that missile is going to miss the target," Eveleth said. "By doing it out at Hainan and launching from a potentially unfamiliar launch location the missile crew may be unfamiliar with you can identify potential pitfalls in the process."

The publicly announced ICBM launch comes as PLARF expands its nuclear arsenal and builds up its missile capabilities.

Last fall, the Department of Defense reported that PLARF had effectively doubled its stockpiles of some missiles from 2021 to 2022, including medium-range ballistics capable of targeting US military assets in Japan and intermediate-range missiles able to reach Guam; its number of ICBMs went from 300 to 350, while its launchers for those missiles grew from 300 to 500.

The "dramatic expansion," coupled with other new developments, "will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear-warhead production," the Pentagon said, estimating that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads — making it the world's third-largest arsenal after Russia and the US.

China's ICBM test in the Pacific also comes as the country flexes its muscles, conducting joint naval drills with Russia that the Russian leader characterized as a challenge to the US-led world order, bullying neighboring nations, and testing boundaries.

China has faced repeated criticism for engaging in unsafe intercepts of American aircraft and those of its allies, airspace violations and breaches of territorial waters, and aggressive clashes at sea in contested waterways while also continuing to put increasing pressure on Taiwan.

Beijing has likewise expressed frustration with the US military's presence in the region, including the indefinite deployment of a new missile system in the Philippines and a potential future one to Japan, among other things.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry recently accused the US, through its moves, of heightening an "arms race" and exacerbating "regional tensions" related to the deployment. China has also recently complained about transits by the US and its allies and partners through the Taiwan Strait.

Despite the persistent tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, the Chinese military stated that its ICBM test was "not directed against any country or target." It didn't say whether it plans to repeat this kind of test in the future.