Israel may not be able to take down Iran's nuclear sites on its own

• Israel is weighing up its response to Iran's missile attack.
• One option would be to take out Iran's nuclear sites — something Biden opposes.
• However, experts say this kind of attack would be difficult without US support.

As Israel weighs up how to strike back against Iran, speculation is mounting that it could target the country's nuclear facilities.

But an attack of this magnitude involves serious complexities — and, according to experts, that may require direct US support.

"Israel can damage Iran's nuclear program without US assistance, but it is unclear if it can by itself carry out the type of sustained and penetrating conventional attack that would seriously set back the program," Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told Business Insider.

President Joe Biden has signaled his opposition to such a strike.

"The answer is no," he responded when a reporter asked Wednesday if he supported the move.

'A big mistake'

It comes amid intensifying fears that Israel and Iran, longtime regional foes, are on the precipice of all-out war. It's a war the US is desperately seeking to head off.

Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Most were intercepted by the Israeli and US militaries, The New York Times reported.

The attacks were in response to Israel's intensifying campaign against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, Iran's most powerful foreign proxy.

Israel is turning its guns against Hezbollah having spent a year attempting to destroy Hamas, another Iranian ally, after it launched devastating terror attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran "made a big mistake" and would "pay for it." Experts predict an imminent response and told BI it could vary from targeted assassinations to the destruction of Iranian energy facilities.

Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Friday, fueled by speculation that the growing conflict could limit production. Brent crude futures rose as much as 1.8% earlier on Friday and US futures were up 0.6% at $74.20, according to Reuters.

A hit on Iran's nuclear facilities could, however, create far graver consequences, potentially including a race by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

Israel could face major challenges

Israel would also have to overcome various obstacles if it were to coordinate a massive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities — the first being distance.

As The Financial Times noted, there are more than a thousand miles between Israel and Iran's main nuclear bases.

It would also require significant resources — around 100 aircraft, according to a 2012 report by the US Congressional Research Service. That equates to almost a third of Israel's 340 combat aircraft, stretching its capabilities.

And Iran's nuclear sites present a formidable target, sprawling across various sites, with several of the most sensitive located in heavily fortified underground bunkers.

Targeting the key underground facilities at Fordow and Natanz would require the use of massive US bunker-busting GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators, experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists wrote in October.

An attack would also require neutralizing air defense systems and other sites Iran could use to strike back.

"Israel alone can inflict serious damage to Iran's nuclear facilities, but it probably can't destroy the deepest-buried ones without US assistance," Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told BI.

A more limited strike is a likely option

Another option is a more limited attack.

Robert Dover, a professor of international security at Hull University, told BI that such an attack could take the form of a strike on logistics lines used to supply Iran's nuclear program.

"The Israelis are more likely to attack logistics lines to the Iranian nuclear programme, which can be achieved in the same hour-by-hour timeframe as their military activities are currently governed by," said Dover.

Sabet echoed this assessment, saying that military bases, secondary nuclear facilities, and economic targets were more likely at this stage.

For its part, Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful and that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons.

However, it has faced various sanctions from the EU, US, and UN for violating treaties on nuclear advancement, and its economy has suffered as a result.

Filipo Dionigi, an expert on international relations at the University of Bristol in the UK, told BI that despite Biden's words Wednesday, the US could still decide to support Israel if it decided to go ahead with a strike.

In a recent report, Savill highlighted the growing threat of regional escalation.

"The current situation serves as a sobering reminder of the delicate balance between the deterrent power and destabilizing impact that even a near-threshold nuclear capability can provide," he said.