Russia's drive in one battlefront has cost it a staggering 1,800 combat vehicles

Thu, 10/10/2024 - 14:26

Russian tank Ukraine — Russia's offensive in the Poprovsk region has come at a cost of over 1,800 combat vehicles.
ANATOLII STEPANOV via Getty Images

Russia has lost five divisions' worth of tanks and vehicles in the Pokrovsk region since last October.
The losses occurred during Russian offensives to seize Avdiivka and now Poprovsk.
Russia's drive is coming at a massive and possibly unsustainable cost.

Russian forces have reportedly lost nearly 2,000 armored vehicles, tanks, and heavy equipment since launching its offensive in eastern Ukraine last October, an open-source researcher found.

In February, Russia seized the town of Avdiivka, a longtime Ukrainian stronghold, after a monthslong campaign that contributed to "some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far," according to British military intelligence.

Moscow's losses — both in equipment and personnel — only continued to grow as it advanced in the western Donetsk region, an onslaught against Ukraine's defended positions that contributed to the heavy toll in September; a US official recently said that month saw the highest Russian casualties in the entire war.

In early October, two key Ukrainian frontline towns, Vuhledar and Hrodivka, fell to Russia during its advance toward Pokrovsk, a strategic city serving as a road and rail hub to supply Ukrainian military outposts.

Despite the heavy equipment losses, Russian forces have yet to make concrete tactical gains in the region, only advancing about 25 miles toward the key Ukrainian city.

A new report by the Institute for the Study of War said the losses amount to at least five divisions' worth of combat vehicles, citing an open-source X account tracking visually confirmed Russian vehicle and equipment losses.

Russian forces have also lost rockets, anti-aircraft systems, and drones in its offensive along the eastern front. This is a breakdown of the heavy losses that could jeopardize Russia's ability to expand its battlefield gains.

Combat vehicles

An abandoned Russian BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle close to the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.
Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

As of early October, Russia has lost just over 1,000 armored fighting vehicles and infantry mobility vehicles, roughly equating to four to five mechanized infantry divisions' worth of military vehicles, according to the open-source X user.

A majority of the combat vehicle losses stemmed from the Russian offensive toward Pokrovsk after Ukrainian forces destroyed 835 of the 1,020 armored vehicles. Destroyed vehicles exact a human toll. A BMP-1 amphibious fighting vehicle, for example, is crewed by three soldiers and can carry up to eight passengers.

A Ukrainian military commander reported that Russia was losing up to 90% of the vehicles used in mechanized assaults in the Donetsk region this past summer, according to the ISW.

But Russian equipment losses could be even higher, given that the open-source data relies on verifying images shared publicly of destroyed or abandoned vehicles. As of February 2024, the British International Institute for Strategic Studies, a global defense think tank, previously estimated that Russian forces were losing over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles annually.

Tanks

An abandoned Russian T-62 tank was retaken by the Ukrainian army from Russian troops.
DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images

At least 539 Russian tanks have also been lost in this drive — about 70% of which were destroyed by Ukrainian forces during Russia's assault into eastern Ukraine.

In the past month alone, Russian forces lost 25 tanks and 59 armored vehicles, equivalent to two battalions' worth of mechanized equipment, according to the ISW.

Russia's loss has been Ukraine's gain, as troops repair and redeploy the damaged or captured tanks to counter Russian forces.

Multiple Launch Rocket System

At least 22 multiple launch rocket systems were also among Russia's heavy equipment losses, according to the open-source data.

MLRS have been critical assets in Russia's arsenal, allowing it to carry and launch rocket artillery barrages against Ukrainian defenses. Russia's artillery advantage and its relentless glide bomb attacks have forced Ukrainian soldiers to fall back.

Earlier this week, Russia claimed it used an MLRS to hit a Ukrainian stronghold near the frontline town of Chasiv Yar, located about six miles west of Bakhmut. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the attack, which used 220mm munitions, aimed to destroy ammunition and equipment storage sites, as well as isolate Ukrainian reserve forces.

Artillery

A Russian soldier aims a 2B16 Nona-K towed gun. — A Russian soldier aims a 120mm towed gun.
Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

Russian heavy equipment losses also included 11 towed artillery and 51 self-propelled artillery systems.

Russia has a significant artillery advantage over Ukraine, producing and acquiring more shells than Ukraine and its allies can. A top US general warned in April that Russia's advantage is only projected to double as supply shortages continue to plague Ukraine's stockpiles.

Drones and aircraft

The Merlin-VR Russian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, a Russian reconnaissance drone, can operate at an altitude of up to five kilometers.
OE Data Integration Network

Russia suffered airborne losses as well, including at least 13 reconnaissance drones that scout Ukraine's lines for troop positions and targets to strike.

In July, a Russian Su-25 attack jet and a Mi-8 transport helicopter were downed near Pokrovsk by Ukrainian forces using anti-aircraft guns.

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Military & Defense, Russia, Ukraine, combat-vehicle, MLRS, anti-aircraft, Tanks, russian-military

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Russia's drive in one battlefront has cost it a staggering 1,800 combat vehicles