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- Donald Trump's policies may impact legal immigrants in tech, sparking fears of a worker shortage.
- In his last term, Trump paused some work visa programs used by tech firms to hire skilled talent.
- Experts say stricter immigration laws could hinder America's global edge in artificial intelligence.
Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector.
"If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.
Trump's election win could lead to mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "famous travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominately Muslim to enter the US. This order left many tech workers stranded outside of the US in 2017.
What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.
It's hard to estimate the number of legal immigrants working in the tech sector due to the variety of visa types available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. According to USCIS data, the majority of petitions approved in the previous fiscal year, 65%, went to workers in computer-related roles.
The new year should bring clarity on H-1Bs, said Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients.
"I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare."
"Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.
In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the "Buy American, Hire American" president. He signed an executive order to suspend some temporary work visas like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that hit tech hardest. His administration saw an increase of denial rates for visa applications and more requests for evidence seeking further proof of workers' eligibility.
"From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H1-B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," said Palo Alto-based immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn.
Under stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could snap back to a pandemic-era worker shortage, especially for companies at the frontier. Experts told Business Insider the sector is already understaffed, and recruiting for artificial intelligence skills is particularly tough as every company scrambles to hire workers capable of leading them into the future.
Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."
Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Elon Musk, at Trump's side, could bring a fresh approach to the issue.
"Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie posted on social media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."
Musk, a strong supporter of Trump and who could be considered for a role in the administration, replied, "I agree."
The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are scouring university programs, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.
In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges should get green cards.
There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn noted. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a venture capital background, and Musk is an immigrant himself who has said he was on an H1-B visa previously.
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Chris Farmer, founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will "have his ear" on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration, though for how long is uncertain.
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.
Shin Yi Chong, who received her H1-B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation.
"Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."
Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.