Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez
- Donald Trump wants to cut taxes on Social Security benefits, affecting current and future beneficiaries.
- Experts in fiscal policy warn the cuts could deplete the Social Security fund earlier than expected.
- Low-income baby boomers and younger generations would be most hurt by Trump's proposal.
Donald Trump plans to make changes to America's Social Security system with his return to the White House in January.
The president-elect promised on the campaign trail to cut taxes on Social Security benefits in his second term.
"People on Social Security are being killed, and one of the things I'm doing is no tax for seniors on Social Security, and I'll get it done quickly," Trump told "Fox & Friends" in August.
For some baby boomers, lower Social Security taxes could mean larger monthly checks in the short term. But experts in fiscal policy predict that the Social Security tax cuts, along with other campaign promises made by Trump, could quickly drain the national Social Security fund. That would put benefits at risk for low-income retirees and younger generations, who may rely on that income as they age.
"It's designed to help retirees, but the people it's going to hurt are people that rely on Social Security the most," Taylor Lee, a certified financial planner at Belmont Capital Advisors, told BI of Trump's proposed Social Security tax cut.
More than 72 million Americans receive Social Security, and the estimated average monthly check in October was $1,924.35, according to the Social Security Administration. Americans can begin taking Social Security at age 62 or wait until their full benefits kick in at 67, the national retirement age.
Trump's campaign promise came as Business Insider heard from older adults with limited retirement savings, many of whom were struggling to afford necessities such as housing and groceries on their fixed Social Security income. Income taxes on Social Security apply to all beneficiaries with an annual household income above $25,000, and most pay taxes on at least 50% of their benefits. Lower-income beneficiaries pay less in taxes.
Social Security tax cuts would hurt low-income retirees, younger generations
US Social Security is set to be depleted in the next decade without congressional action. The fund is largely financed through payroll taxes that Americans contribute to throughout their careers.
A report published in October by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said Trump's campaign promises — which also include ending taxes on tips, reducing some income taxes, expanding deportations, and imposing tariffs — would take a toll on the Social Security fund, making it "insolvent" within the next six years. That's three years earlier than the Congressional Budget Office's current estimation.
The report said those policies would also lead to a 33% benefit cut in 2035, a 10% increase from what the Congressional Budget Office projects under the current law.
Lee said low-income boomers and younger generations were likely to feel the brunt of these cuts.
Low-income boomers living on Social Security already pay less income taxes, so they wouldn't see the benefits Trump promised. Lee said many don't have other retirement savings to fall back on if their benefits are slashed.
He added that older Americans who are wealthy or middle class would feel less stress from Social Security cuts and might benefit in the short term from Trump's tax plan.
"It would help people in the middle class, people that have the luxury of having a 401(k) or an IRA and have multiple sources of retirement income," Lee said. "But the people that's going to hurt the most are people that don't have that traditional retirement income."
Lee said it was possible that younger generations would have lower Social Security benefits, requiring them to rely more heavily on retirement savings.
To be sure, any changes Trump hopes to make to the tax or Social Security systems would need to be approved by Congress. Working in his favor is that the Senate will have a Republican majority. (Votes for House representatives are still being counted.) Lee noted that tax funding isn't the only challenge facing Social Security: People are living longer, meaning that more benefits funding is required per person.
As for other retirement finances, such as 401(k) accounts and investments, it's unclear what impact a second Trump term will have. The president-elect plans to impose tariffs on foreign goods and make broad tax cuts, a move that's likely to drive inflation and make the cost of living higher.
With the future of Social Security uncertain, Lee said, it's important for retirees to build a strong financial plan.
"There's a lot of planning that we can still do," Lee said. "Government policy — we really can't affect that. So we just have to control what we can control."
Are you relying on Social Security in retirement? Are you adjusting your retirement plans based on Trump's return to office? If so, reach out to this reporter at allisonkelly@businessinsider.com.
Correction: November 11, 2024 — An earlier version of this story used an outdated average for monthly Social Security checks. The Social Security Administration said the average monthly check for retired workers was $1,907 in January, but it was $1,924.35 in October.