The federal government is preparing for what appears to be an imminent shutdown after President Donald Trump and congressional leaders failed to find budgetary compromise in meetings convened on Monday (Sept. 29).
The funding lapse would be the first under Trump's second term (but certainly not the first in the country's history). Under Trump's first term, the federal government experienced its longest shutdown ever (35 days) as leaders debated funding for Trump's plans to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the pause resulted in a $3 billion hit to the U.S. economy.
This year's budget hinges on the two parties agreeing to terms on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, something the Trump administration has taken a hard line on in its One Big Beautiful Bill. Senate Democrats have already once rejected a Republican-led temporary funding plan that would extend the current budget for another seven weeks, choosing to stand their ground on Medicaid.
Republican leaders, which hold a majority in the House and Senate, have plastered some government pages with claims that Democrats are holding the budget hostage. The homepage for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, for example, reads: "The Radical Left are going to shut down the government and inflict massive pain on the American people unless they get their $1.5 trillion wish list of demands."
If the pattern continues until the deadline (Sept. 30 at midnight), federal spending streams will be halted and services will have to operate with limited staff and funding.
What a shutdown means for federal agencies
In a departure from previous government shutdowns, the White House has also threatened to slash the federal workforce should the lapse occur, with Trump saying thousands of permanent jobs could be on the line if the two parties can't come to an agreement. The administration has already cut thousands of workers, including another 100,000 expected to resign today.
But most employees, barring lawmakers on Capitol Hill, will be furloughed or forced to work without pay. The paychecks of around 4 million federal employees, including millions of active service members and currently deployed National Guard troops, will be held in limbo until the new budget passes. Hundreds of thousands of employees will continue to work as unpaid essential staff — more than 300,000 government workers were furloughed during the last shutdown in early 2019.
Essential services, like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, will continue to be doled out in the event of a shutdown, although individuals can expect slower turnarounds and potential application pauses. Regulatory agencies, including the health and safety operations of the FDA and CDC, will have to pause some of their work, as they reduce necessary staff. TSA and air traffic users will also be forced to work without pay. The U.S. Postal Service, border patrol, and law enforcement shouldn't be affected.
Federal employee unions, including the AFGE, have warned that such a pause would put federal employees at risk of financial, medical, and food insecurity, and called the proposed mass firings an illegal tactic by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
How a shutdown may impact individuals and online users
For the average citizen, a brief government shutdown will be more like a blip than a pressing worry. But an extended funding lapse — like that in 2019 — could have further-reaching repercussions.
Most online services will continue to operate, including filing options for federal benefits, forms, and documents, like travel visas. But whether or not you'll receive those requests on time is another matter. SNAP and WIC recipients, for example, could have their benefits delayed if the USDA is slow to process new forms. Non-automated collections and refunds for the IRS would also be impacted, as the agency works with limited staff. Immigration and travel services, like the E-Verify process for new employees, could be shut down, as well.
Other human services, like call centers and hotlines, could be put on pause, too. Offline, conservation groups have called to close National Parks if employees are furloughed following widespread vandalism during the 2019 shutdown. In the past, this has threatened the ever-popular Fat Bear Week, held at Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska. Agencies like the National Park Service historically stop updating social media during a shutdown.
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In addition to beleaguered services and hits to federally subsidized programs, federal websites and national cyber security could also be strained by the lack of staff and funding. In 2019, security company Netcraft alleged that the lapse led to dozens of expired security certificates for .gov websites, rendering them "insecure or inaccessible." The Department of Homeland Security's cyber-security and infrastructure security agency was reduced to half staff, and cyber security experts warned that continued understaffing could pose risks to the general public, unable to verify federal websites. Previous lapses have also delayed election system security scans and cybersecurity research.
This time around, the DHS's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) may be reduced even more, down to 35 percent of its current staff. Also on the chopping block for budget lawmakers is the 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, a law that facilitates cyber threat sharing between private companies and the government, which is set to expire.