Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket

• One of the tightest Oscar races in recent memories are on Sunday.
• Bettors are already wagering tens of millions on who will win in each of the 24 categories.
• Here's who's most likely to win, according to the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket.

At the Oscars on Sunday, it's not just Hollywood careers that are on the line. It's tens of millions of dollars.

Since the nominees were announced in January, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will win an Oscar in each of the Academy's 24 categories.

Prediction markets have seen dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.

Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes earlier this year, and bettors on the site correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.

The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O'Brien, will air on Sunday on ABC and Hulu.

And if bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket have it right, "One Battle After Another" will take home six Oscars, while "Sinners" will win four awards, and "Frankenstein" will walk away with three.

Where the odds stand for each category

Best Picture — "One Battle After Another"

Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at around 80% among Polymarket and 78% on Kalshi.

The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler's "Sinners," which each platform gives a less than 20% chance.

Bettors have wagered more than $44 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

The director of "One Battle After Another" is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the low 90s.

Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan

Michael B. Jordan, the lead actor on "Sinners," has an almost 60% chance of winning, according to both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That's a significant change from January, when Timothée Chalamet — the lead actor in "Marty Supreme" — was seen as the leading contender, with odds in the mid-70s at the time.

The change came after Jordan won "Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role" at the Actor Awards on March 1.

Chalamet's chances now sit in the low-to-high 30s on both platforms.

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in "Hamnet" — is likely to win best actress, garnering about 97% on both prediction market platforms.

Best Cinematography — "One Battle After Another"

"One Battle After Another" is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie roughly 76% chance of winning.

That's a change from January, when both platforms had "Sinners" with a 66% chance of winning at one point.

Best Production Design — "Frankenstein"

At over 90%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give "Frankenstein" an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.

Best Adapted Screenplay — "One Battle After Another"

In addition to best picture and best cinematography, "One Battle After Another" is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay.

The movie now has a 96% chance of winning on both platforms.

Best Sound — "F1"

Apple's sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.

Both platforms give the movie a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Best Animated Short Film — "Butterfly"

Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.

"Butterfly," a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a 61% chance on both platforms.

But not far behind is "The Girl Who Cried Pearls," a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 21% and 22% chance of winning.

Best Live Action Short Film — "Two People Exchanging Saliva"

The French-language short film "Two People Exchanging Saliva" leads among bettors with about a 46% chance of winning on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Another major contender is "The Singers," a musical short comedy film that has 29% chance on Kalshi and a 30% chance on Polymarket.

Additionally, "A Friend of Dorothy," a British short comedy drama film, has a 22% chance on Kalshi and a 21% on Polymarket.

Best Film Editing — "One Battle After Another"

The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with an 84% chance on both platforms.

Best Original Score — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a 94% chance of winning.

Best Original Song — "Golden"

"Golden," the viral hit from the film "KPop Demon Hunters," is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms giving the song a 85% chance.

Best Supporting Actor — Sean Penn

Sean Penn, who plays Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in "One Battle After Another," is the favorite to win best supporting actor, with an over 70% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

That's a dramatic change from January, when Stellan Skarsgård — who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film "Sentimental Value" — had the highest odds, at roughly 64% chance on both platforms.

Best Supporting Actress — Amy Madigan

Amy Madigan, who portrays Aunt Gladys in the horror film "Weapons," is now the favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 55%.

That's a change from January, when Teyana Taylor — who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in "One Battle After Another" — was the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress, sporting 75% on both platforms.

Best Visual Effects — "Avatar: Fire and Ash"

Bettors believe that James Cameron's "Avatar: Fire and Ash," the third installment in the "Avatar" series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.

The movie's chances of winning stand at 94% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Original Screenplay — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite to win best original screenplay, with roughly 95% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Documentary Short Film — "All the Empty Rooms"

Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give "All the Empty Rooms" a roughly 70% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.

The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.

Best Documentary Feature Film — "The Perfect Neighbor"

"The Perfect Neighbor," a documentary about Florida's "Stand Your Ground" laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 66% chance.

Best International Feature Film — "Sentimental Value"

"Sentimental Value" is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67%-68% odds of winning.

Best Costume Design — "Frankenstein"

"Frankenstein" is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 90% on both platforms.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — "Frankenstein"

Similarly, "Frankenstein" is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the low 90s on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Animated Feature Film — "KPop Demon Hunters"

"KPop Demon Hunters" is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 94% chance on both prediction markets.

Best Casting — "Sinners"

"Sinners" is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 77%-78% chance of winning.