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Howdy readers. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York. 

On this day in 1940, Disney debuted "Pinocchio," and the nosy puppet became one of the most beloved characters in film history. 

I bring this up because some people say that, unlike the marionette, markets don't lie. 

In that case, it may be wise to heed a key bond market signal that's saying we'll avoid a recession after all.

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Trader NYSE
Traders work on the floor at the opening bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2020 in New York.
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Trader NYSE
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 5, 2020.
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Trader at NYSE
A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022.
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Happy Friday, team. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen. 

In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts.

EU policymakers plan to make the same sized hike at their meeting in March, similar to expectations for the US central bank to repeat yesterday's rate hike at its next meeting.