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- Research published in the last few months suggests heat waves diminish worker productivity.
- 2021 data reveals heat exposure in the US led to a loss of over 2.5 billion hours of labor.
- There are no federal regulations that protect workers in extreme heat, contributing to losses in productivity.
If the heat is interfering with your ability to do your job, you're certainly not alone.
Across the country, record-high temperatures have made work much more difficult for millions of Americans. New research shows just how much heat-related productivity losses are costing the US economy.
Businesses from factories to restaurants to energy companies are facing difficult economic circumstances and struggling to keep workers safe with temperatures rising to the highest levels in history, with some cutting workers' hours or slowing down tasks.
According to data released Tuesday by small business payroll company Homebase, small business employees worked 0.9% less hours in the first two weeks of July than the last two weeks of June. This was particularly pronounced in New Orleans and Nashville, which saw 5.7% and 5.1% drops in employment activity respectively during this period.
Data from 2021 reveals heat exposure led to a loss of 470 billion worker-hours worldwide across the agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and service sectors. From 2011 to 2021, 436 workers in the US died from extreme heat, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a conservative estimate given some heat-related deaths are attributed to other conditions.
"The increase in heat poses a lot of challenges for workers, particularly if you're working outdoors, but also if you're working indoors and you don't have adequate air conditioning," Algernon Austin, director for race and economic justice at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Insider. "There's of course the worst case, the risk of death, but there is the risk of injury with the rise in temperature and reduced work hours. All of those things can result in loss of income and wages for those populations."
How much heat impacts productivity
Plenty of studies show that extreme heat can crush economic activity across a variety of sectors.
According to a June study from the Annual Review of Resource Economics, extreme heat has a greater impact on more labor-intensive sectors such as industrial firms than on agriculture. High temperatures decrease productivity by raising heart rate and contributing to heat stress, leading to reduced cognitive function. Long-term exposure to extreme heat, the authors write, causes inflammation and cardiovascular pressure.
Workers in high-exposure industries worked about an hour less when the temperature was above 85 degrees Fahrenheit compared to the 76-80 degrees Fahrenheit range. Though when workers lack flexibility in what hours they can work, labor supply is less sensitive to temperature.
One 2010 study that found that a one degree Celsius (almost two degrees Fahrenheit) increase led to a 2.5% decrease in national output in the nonagriculture sector, about 20 times more than in the agriculture sector. A 2012 study found a similar increase led to a 2% decline in industrial output. And according to a 2015 study, the annual economic growth rate was an inverted U-shaped curve with a peak at 13 degrees Celsius (about 55 degrees Fahrehneit), meaning that as temperatures increased beyond that point, growth fell significantly.
Even under more moderate conditions, heat still impacts worker productivity. A paper from the International Journal of Biometeorology found that under conditions of mild heat stress around 18 degrees Celsius (about 64 degrees Fahrenheit), physical work capacity fell 10%. Under extreme conditions of 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), physical work capacity fell a drastic 78%.
Another study from 2018 found that at temperatures above around 75 degrees Fahrenheit, those working a single shift were around four times more likely to experience occupational heat strain. Around 30% of workers reported productivity losses, while around 15% working regularly under heat stress reported kidney-related health conditions.
Austin told Insider this loss in productivity particularly impacts lower-income workers, as well as Black and Hispanic employees. One study found Hispanic workers in California worked on average 14 more days outside annually than white workers at temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
Climate change more broadly is expected to damage the US economy over the next few decades, as crop failures, flooding, and continued loss of productivity are expected to worsen over the next few years. Alongside this, insurance rates are expected to increase significantly, as some insurers are not only raising rates in high-risk areas but also pulling out entirely — State Farm, California's largest homeowner insurance company, pulled out of California amid wildfires.
"There are all of these stresses that are going to be placed on our infrastructure and on our bodies, so it's going to transform our lives and therefore our economy in ways that that we can't fully appreciate," Austin told Insider. "We need policies to protect people who have to work outdoors and make sure that they don't have to work outdoors when the temperature's in the triple digits."
With temperatures still blazing across the country, some workers are left with a difficult decision: work less and get paid less, or risk their health and keep their job.
Are you staying home or working fewer hours because of extreme heat? Reach out to this reporter at nsheidlower@insider.com.