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- Denmark's Saxo Bank published its annual list of outrageous predictions Tuesday.
- Its strategists came up with eight unlikely but underappreciated scenarios that could rock the global markets in 2024.
- They flagged risks including an AI deepfake security crisis and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the US presidential election.
As the year comes to an end, Wall Street banks have started to publish their predictions for 2024. Some are having more fun than others.
In an annual tradition that stretches back nearly two decades, Denmark's Saxo Bank uses the start of the holiday season as a chance to put out a list of what its strategists see as outrageous predictions.
Saxo describes them as "unlikely but underappreciated events" that could rock the global economy and drive up volatility in financial markets.
Headlining the bank's predictions this year are Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the 2024 presidential election and the rise of generative AI sparking a national security crisis in the US.
RFK Jr. – who has been criticized in the past for anti-vaxx and anti-Semitic comments but is supported by some big names in Wall Street and Silicon Valley – is currently enjoying a plus-7.5 favorability rating among Americans, according to polling data from FiveThirtyEight.
He could win in November thanks to a combination of a long-predicted recession and voter burnout over being asked to pick between Joe Biden and Donald Trump again, according to Saxo's head of FX strategy John Hardy.
Hardy added that defense, drug, and healthcare companies would likely see their stock prices plummet in that scenario, while the Big Tech giants that have posted dominant returns this year would trade more cautiously due to fears of a crackdown on monopolies.
Meanwhile, Saxo sees a high-profile government official getting tricked by AI deepfake technology, triggering a national security crisis.
That would up the pressure on developers of intelligent language bots like Google and OpenAI, while triggering a massive share-price surge for traditional media companies like the New York Times, per Saxo's head of equity strategy Peter Garnry.
"Though these predictions are not Saxo Bank's official market forecasts, they are a reminder to investors to consider all potential outcomes, including those that seem far-fetched," the bank said Tuesday in a press release.
"Outrageous predictions are a deliberate effort to push the boundaries of market participants' imaginations and prepare them for any eventuality," Saxo added.
Here are Saxo's six other picks for seemingly outrageous scenarios in 2024:
- Crude oil prices spike to $150 a barrel, giving Saudi Arabia the spending power to create a World Champions League soccer competition.
- McDonald's and Coca-Cola shares soar as obesity drugs like Ozempic encourage unhealthy habits, triggering a global health crisis.
- The US finances its mountain of debt by making Treasurys tax-free, sparking a massive bond-market rally.
- Six indebted countries – the US, the UK, India, Brazil, Canada, and France – set up the "Rome club" to coordinate reducing their deficits.
- Japan enjoys an economic boom as GDP growth tops 7%, driving up the yen against the US dollar.
- Luxury stocks including Louis Vuitton parent LVMH crash after the European Union introduces a "Robin Hood"-style wealth tax.
Annual lists like these tend to be analysts' idea of "silly season" Christmas cheer, rather than serious forecasts for what might be in store for markets over the following 12 months.
But several of Saxo's past outrageous predictions have come true, including the S&P 500 shedding a quarter of its value in 2008, the 2015 general election setting the stage for the UK to leave the EU, and bitcoin's price tripling in 2017.