Brendan McDermid/Reuters
- The anti-obesity drug market will be worth $130 billion by 2030, Goldman Sachs said.
- New products such as Eli Lilly's Zepbound prompted the bank to raise its forecast.
- The FDA approved the pharma giant's new weight-loss drug in November.
The market for weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy will keep surging due to new products including Eli Lilly's Zepbound, according to Goldman Sachs.
In a research note the bank forecast that the sector will be worth $130 billion by 2030 — $30 billion higher than its previous projection.
Eli Lilly and Danish giant Novo Nordisk will remain the dominant players with a combined market share of 80% by the end of the decade, said a team of analysts led by Chris Shibutani.
Shares in both companies have racked up big gains since the start of 2023 following rising demand for anti-obesity drugs.
Eli is now valued at $775 billion — far more than Tesla's $550 billion market cap, following a 37% surge this year.
Shibutani's team cited the new Lilly drug Zepbound, which was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in November, and the expansion of the FDA label for Novo's Wegovy as "key events" that had led to Goldman raising its forecast.
When it reported first-quarter results in April, Lilly cited strong demand for Zepbound and other drugs like Mounjaro, Verzenio, and Jardiance as the driving force behind a 26% rise in revenues to $8.77 billion.
The Indianapolis-based company said last month it would double its investment in a manufacturing plant to increase production of the drug, which can treat sleep apnea as well as obesity.
Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for how many US adults are expected to take drugs for chronic weight-loss management from 15 million to 19 million, excluding patients being prescribed the medication to treat Type-2 diabetes.