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Happy Friday, team. I'm Phil Rosen. This week we've seen a storm of economic data in the US. 

The alphabet soup of readings — CPI, PPI, and jobless claims — all point to cooling inflation and a softening labor market. 

In theory, that's good news for the Fed, because it suggests its policy is working. 

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Well, well, well if it isn't another CPI day. Phil Rosen here — March's inflation report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET today.

Here's how FactSet data predicts things to shake out: 

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 2, 2020.
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Howdy readers. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York. 

On this day in 1940, Disney debuted "Pinocchio," and the nosy puppet became one of the most beloved characters in film history. 

I bring this up because some people say that, unlike the marionette, markets don't lie. 

In that case, it may be wise to heed a key bond market signal that's saying we'll avoid a recession after all.

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Happy Friday, team. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen. 

In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts.

EU policymakers plan to make the same sized hike at their meeting in March, similar to expectations for the US central bank to repeat yesterday's rate hike at its next meeting.