Bond Market

Howdy readers. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York. 

On this day in 1940, Disney debuted "Pinocchio," and the nosy puppet became one of the most beloved characters in film history. 

I bring this up because some people say that, unlike the marionette, markets don't lie. 

In that case, it may be wise to heed a key bond market signal that's saying we'll avoid a recession after all.

Happy Friday, team. I'm senior reporter Phil Rosen. 

In case you missed it, the European Central Bank Thursday made a half-point interest rate hike, marking its fifth consecutive move as part of its inflation-fighting efforts.

EU policymakers plan to make the same sized hike at their meeting in March, similar to expectations for the US central bank to repeat yesterday's rate hike at its next meeting.