Fed

Howdy readers. I'm Phil Rosen, reporting from New York. 

On this day in 1940, Disney debuted "Pinocchio," and the nosy puppet became one of the most beloved characters in film history. 

I bring this up because some people say that, unlike the marionette, markets don't lie. 

In that case, it may be wise to heed a key bond market signal that's saying we'll avoid a recession after all.