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The inventor of Wall Street's favorite recession indicator predicts a slowdown this year - and slams the Fed for making things worse

Fri, 01/26/2024 - 07:03

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

Traders signal offers in the Five-Year Treasury Note Options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade — The professor who invented Wall Street's favorite recession indicator expects a US slowdown this year.
Scott Olson/Getty Images)

economy, economy, us-markets-and-economy, yield-curve, inverted-yield-curve, campbell-harvey, Inflation

The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says

Wed, 01/24/2024 - 14:09

Tech Insider : Economy

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm thinks the Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing. — Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm thinks the Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing.
Getty Images

economy, Markets, recession-outlook, soft-landing, fed-rate-cuts, federal-reserve, Inflation

Commercial mortgage lending to jump 29% in 2024 after slowest year in a decade, Mortgage Bankers Association says

Tue, 01/23/2024 - 13:43

Tech Insider

High-rise residential buildings in Singapore. — High-rise public housing apartments are a key feature of Singapore's skyline.
TILT Photography/Getty Images

Real Estate, Markets, commercial-real-estate, borrowing-costs, multifamily, property-market, interest-rates

Some of the biggest optimists on Wall Street see 3 threats to a strong labor market

Tue, 01/23/2024 - 06:01

Tech Insider : Economy

A hiring sign — A "Now Hiring" sign posted in the window of a restaurant looking to hire workers on May 5, 2023, in Miami.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

economy, JOLTS, Hiring, hiring-rate, goldman-sachs, job-openings, federal-reserve

A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.

Mon, 01/22/2024 - 10:16

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

Consumer spending US economy markets — The majority of economists do not expect a recession in the next 12 months, a new NABE survey found.
VIEW press / Getty Images

economy, economy, Markets, consumer-sentiment, Recession, recession-outlook, Economists

Bank credit is shrinking for the first time since the Great Recession - and that's a red flag for the economy

Sat, 01/20/2024 - 13:33

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

wall street — Contracting bank credit levels could be a sign a recession is coming.
Lucky-photographer/Shutterstock

economy, Markets, economy, Markets, Recession, next-recession, recession-outlook

The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024

Sat, 01/20/2024 - 12:17

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

Campbell Harvey — Screengrab/YouTube

economy, Markets, Markets, campbell-harvey, inverted-yield-curve, Recession, recession-outlook

American consumers haven't been this upbeat about the economy since 2021

Fri, 01/19/2024 - 12:47

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

Shoppers have their receipts and carts checked by an employee as they exit from a Costco store in Alhambra, California, on August 19, 2019/ — Consumer sentiment jumped to start 2024, hitting its highest mark since 2021.
Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images

economy, Markets, mi-exclusive, Markets, economy, financial-news, consumer-sentiment

The housing market in 2023 saw its worst year of sales in 29 years

Fri, 01/19/2024 - 11:36

Tech Insider

home sales — The US housing market saw its lowest year of sales in 2023 since 1995. Mortgage rates soared last year as the Fed kept up its fight against inflation.
(Left) Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images, (Right) Getty Images

Real Estate, Markets, Markets, Homes, housing-market, home-sales, real-estate

Inflation at 3% isn't the problem — it's the expectation that interest rates will soon fall, asset manager says

Fri, 01/19/2024 - 03:59

Tech Insider : Economy, Economy

Fed chair Jerome Powell — Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
Aaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty Images

economy, Markets, Markets, economy, Inflation, interest-rates, federal-reserve

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