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All eyes are on the Fed today as officials ready their decision on what could be the final rate hike of the cycle. 

As of last night, traders assigned a 82% probability to a 25 basis-point increase, while they see an 18% chance of no change at all. 

We'll hear from central bank chief Jerome Powell today at 2 p.m. ET, shortly after the policy announcement. 

Below, we're covering everything to know for the big day.

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Good morning, team. I'm Phil Rosen. If you missed it Monday, regulators seized First Republic Bank and JPMorgan took over the majority of its assets. 

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Welcome back, readers. I'm Phil Rosen. I hope you enjoyed this weekend's NBA playoffs and new episode(!) of Succession as much as I did. 

We have a lot of ground to cover today — starting with First Republic. The FDIC announced early this morning that the firm will be taken over by JPMorgan after being seized by regulators.

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Happy Saturday, readers. I'm Phil Rosen. Let's talk about the dollar's role on the world stage — and see what one of the leading currency economists has to say about it.

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It's Friday — Phil Rosen here. Before we rush into the weekend, let's check in with the slowing pace of the housing market, and what that means for the rest of the year's outlook.

One last lap before the weekend! 


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Hey there market people. Phil Rosen here. 

I spent much of yesterday parsing through pages of data on where Russian oil is heading and how much buyers are paying for barrels. 

The clearest takeaway is that the West's sanctions do in fact seem to be taking a toll as intended — Moscow's export revenues are down, but plenty of oil remains available as far as global supplies. 

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Howdy, readers. Phil Rosen here, reporting from New York City. 

For many months now, I've been having conversations and writing about economic indicators that all point to a recession. 

But it still hasn't officially happened yet, at least according to the secretive, little-known group that's responsible for declaring them. They've stayed mum even as the economy goes haywire.

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Good morning. I'm senior editor, Max Adams. 

You don't have to be an avid follower of the media's comings and goings to know that yesterday was a momentous day for cable news. 

Specifically, two of the biggest US news personalities are out — Fox News said goodbye to Tucker Carlson while CNN showed Don Lemon the door

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Phew! Hey readers — I'm Phil Rosen. I'm still in shock after last night's episode of Succession — no spoilers, but dang(!). Talk about drama. 

Today we're diving into how a recession could affect the stock market — and why it may not be all bad in the eyes of investors.